Business & Strategy – Sterling Assets

Stocks sink, yields tumble, oil prices steady: Stock market news today

admin — Tue, 04 Apr 2023 02:33:58 +0000

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U.S. stocks sank and oil prices held steady Tuesday as new data showed fresh signs of labor market cooling and declining factory orders from businesses.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) declined nearly 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped around the same amount. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid 0.5%.

Oil prices steadied, with WTI crude oil — the U.S. benchmark — wavering around $80 a barrel. After big gains Monday, oil was back in its four-month trading range after OPEC+ announced it would slash output by 1.16 million barrels per day.

On the economic front, vacancies at U.S. employers fell to 9.93 million from 10.5 million, a bigger fall than expected. On the other hand, quits were up and layoffs were down, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Separately, factory orders fell 0.3%, also lower than anticipated.

Some economists view the slowdown in the number of open job positions as “progress” to reaching the Fed’s goal of an equilibrium between supply and demand in the labor market.

“While the Fed will welcome the softening in the data, officials will put much more stock in Friday’s employment report and will continue to raise rates at the coming meetings to ensure further progress is made toward softer labor market conditions and lower inflation,” Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

As Martin noted, another data print on which Wall Street will be keeping a close eye is Friday’s jobs report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show 240,000 jobs created last month. This would be lower than the average job gains of 343,000 over the last six months.

Bond yields moved downward after the data prints. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped to 3.35% Tuesday.

Tuesday’s moves came after the Dow rose and the S&P 500 closed up 0.4% on Monday but the Nasdaq 100 lagged, falling 0.3%. Bond yields were down as manufacturing activity slumped to the lowest level since May 2020, signaling further declines could be coming as credit conditions tighten.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Monday that the continued strength in the labor market gives the Fed room to fight inflation. Bullard also commented on OPEC’s decision to cut output, suggesting it could potentially make the Fed’s job of lowering inflation more challenging as oil prices increase.

Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook also highlighted the continued tightness in the labor market.

“We are still going to see inflation from that, but we’ve seen wage gains moderating quite a bit,” she said.

Still, the Federal Reserve has stuck with inflation as its top concern, even amid the recent banking turmoil that has shown signs of easing.

“The Fed rate expected for the next meeting was largely flat against this backdrop, climbing a modest 1.6 basis points to 4.973% with a 63% chance priced in for a 25 basis-point hike next month,” Jim Reid and colleagues at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note to clients.

However, the recent banking troubles triggered by the failures at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are “not over yet,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Thursday, September 22, 2022. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

In his closely watched annual letter to shareholders, Dimon outlined the damages of financial system turmoil on all banks and urged lawmakers to not “overreact” with more regulation.

Elsewhere, Credit Suisse chairman Axel Lehmann apologized for the bank’s failure to save the institution as the firm had been draining deposits for months.

Meanwhile, under the current backdrop, the rally in equities will likely waver given the recent bank failures. The oil surprise and a slowdown in growth could send stocks back to their low levels seen in 2022, said JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic.

In single-stock moves, shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) plunged Tuesday after a settlement would allow AMC to convert APE preferred shares into common AMC stock.

And Disney’s feud with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis escalated. CEO Bob Iger called the governor’s retaliation “anti-business” and “anti-Florida.” Shares of Disney (DIS) ticked down Tuesday.

Shares of Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc. (VORB) sank after the company filed for bankruptcy late Monday after laying off about 85% of its staff in March.

C3.ai, Inc. (AI) shares fell about 26% Tuesday after Kerrisdale Capital, a firm that holds a short position in AI stock, said it has sent a letter to the software maker’s auditor.

Trump pleads not guilty to 34 criminal charges in historic moment for US

admin — Tue, 04 Apr 2023 02:33:27 +0000

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) – Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty in a historic moment for the United States on Tuesday to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, as prosecutors accused him of paying two women to suppress their accounts of sexual encounters with him.

The indictment, unsealed after Trump’s court appearance along with a statement of facts, alleged that Trump and others violated election laws through a scheme to suppress the publication of negative information about him ahead of the 2016 U.S. election. The two women were adult film actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal.

Wearing a dark blue suit and red tie, Trump, the first sitting or former U.S. president to face criminal charges, sat with his hands folded at the defense table as he entered his plea flanked by his lawyers.

“Not guilty,” Trump, 76, said when asked how he pleaded.

“We’re going to fight it. We’re going to fight it hard,” Todd Blanche, a lawyer for Trump, told reporters after the arraignment, adding that Trump was frustrated, upset and angry about the charges.

“But I’ll tell you what – he’s motivated. And it’s not going to stop him. And it’s not going to slow him down. And it’s exactly what he expected,” Blanche added.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump appears in court for an arraignment on charges stemming from his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S., April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/Pool

The judge set the next court hearing for Dec. 4 and did not issue a gag order on any of the parties.

Some of the evidence against Trump was caught in an audio recording in September 2016 as he and his attorney discussed how to suppress stories about his affair, prosecutors said. Court documents said Trump can be heard saying, “So what do we got to pay for this?”

Trump’s reimbursement checks to a lawyer for the suppression payments falsely stated that the money was for a “retainer agreement,” prosecutors said. The indictment accused Trump of falsifying his real estate company’s books with intent to defraud.

Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, said nothing as he entered the courtroom or when he left roughly an hour later. Trump previously called the charges politically motivated.

He was due to return to Florida and deliver remarks from his Mar-a-Lago resort at 8:15 p.m. on Tuesday (0015 GMT on Wednesday), his office said.

Taken together, the charges carry a maximum sentence of more than 100 years in prison under New York law but an actual prison sentence if he is convicted at a trial would almost certainly be far less than that.

While falsifying business records in New York on its own is a misdemeanor punishable by no more than one year in prison, it is elevated to a felony punishable by up to four years in prison when done to advance or conceal another crime.

The Manhattan grand jury convened by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg that indicted Trump heard evidence about a $130,000 payment made to Daniels in the waning days of the 2016 presidential campaign. Daniels has said she was paid to keep silent about a sexual encounter she had with Trump at a Lake Tahoe hotel in 2006.

Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen has said he coordinated with Trump on payments to Daniels and McDougal. Trump has denied having had sexual relationships with either woman, but has acknowledged reimbursing Cohen.

Trump lawyer Joseph Tacopina said after the indictment that if the defendant was anyone other than Trump, there would have been no charges.

Bragg, a Democrat, was due to give a news conference later on Tuesday.

Trump departed his New York residence at Trump Tower in a motorcade bound for the courthouse. He showed little emotion when he waved to a crowd assembled outside the courthouse.

From his motorcade, Trump posted on social media: “Heading to Lower Manhattan, the Courthouse. Seems so SURREAL – WOW, they are going to ARREST ME. Can’t believe this is happening in America.”

New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg speaks after former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared at Manhattan Criminal Courthouse, after his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S., April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Trump surrendered to Bragg’s office before the arraignment began in Justice Juan Merchan’s court. At an arraignment, a defendant hears charges and can enter a plea. Trump was fingerprinted but no mugshot photo was taken, according to a Twitter post by a New York Times reporter.

In other social media posts ahead of the arraignment, Trump renewed his attacks on Merchan, who last year presided over a trial in which Trump’s real estate company was convicted of tax fraud.

Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021, in November announced a bid to regain the presidency in 2024 in a bid to deny Democratic President Joe Biden, who beat him in 2020, a second term in the White House.

The businessman-turned-politician has been a familiar figure for decades in New York, the city where he was raised, built his real estate business and became a celebrity.

On a cool and sunny early spring day in the most-populous U.S. city, Trump supporters and detractors were separated by barricades set up by police to try to keep order, though there were some confrontations.

“Let’s keep it civil, folks,” a police officer told them.

Hundreds of Trump supporters, at a park across from the Manhattan courthouse, cheered and blew whistles, outnumbering his detractors. The Trump critics held signs including one of Trump dressed in a striped jail uniform behind bars and another that read, “Lock Him Up.”

The White House remained mum on the drama in New York.

“I think the American people should feel reassured that when there is an ongoing case like this one that we’re just not commenting,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters.

Any trial is at least more than a year away, legal experts said. Being indicted or even convicted does not legally prevent Trump from running for president.

Trump faces a separate criminal probe by a Democratic local prosecutor in Georgia into whether he unlawfully tried to overturn his 2020 election defeat in the state. He also faces two U.S. Justice Department investigations led by a special counsel into efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

(Reporting by Karen Freifeld and Jody Godoy; Additional reporting by Julia Harte, Tyler Clifford, Jonathan Allen, Jeenah Moon and David Dee Delgado in New York, Nathan Layne in Connecticut and Doina Chiacu and Richard Cowan in Washington; Writing by Will Dunham; Editing by Howard Goller)

Saudi crown prince hands Putin his biggest weapon in the energy war

admin — Tue, 04 Apr 2023 02:32:39 +0000

putin and mohammad bin salman oil price chart

During his presidential campaign Joe Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia an international pariah. Then came sky high inflation and a war. In July, Biden swallowed his words and travelled to Jeddah to meet the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman.

But if Biden had hoped that MBS, as the Kingdom’s ruler is known, would boost Saudi Arabia’s oil output at a time when higher crude costs were driving a surge in inflation, he was to be sorely disappointed.

Instead, in October, the Saudi-led Opec cartel of oil producing countries slashed output by two million barrels per day to drive prices higher. Now – heedless of an angry US president who has threatened unspecified “consequences” – it is cutting production again.

As Biden looks on powerlessly, one of the biggest winners is likely to be Vladimir Putin.

On Sunday, nine members of Opec + (a larger collective of 23 nations) announced a voluntary output cut of 1.2m barrels per day from May until the end of the year. This amounts to 1.1pc of global supply.

The move drove up oil prices immediately – and they will continue to rise. Brent crude oil jumped from $79.77 per barrel on Sunday to $85.02 on Monday.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for Brent crude for December 2023 up from $90 to $95. By December 2024, prices will have climbed to $100.

These prices will be the new normal, says Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB financial services. And it will inevitably translate into pain for millions of consumers through higher prices at the pump and greater costs in the shops.

The blow to the West is threefold. High oil prices will keep inflation up. The move signals that Saudi Arabia is turning its back on the West and turning to China. Rising oil prices will also undermine sanctions on Russia – where oil profits are about to surge.

Every $1 increase in the price of crude oil boosts Russian export revenues by about $2.7bn a year, says Benjamin Hilgenstock, author of a report on Russian sanctions for the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a think tank.

A $10 increase in the oil price will therefore increase Russian oil export revenues by around $27bn to $145bn this year. This is about 22.5pc more than CEPR had forecast before the Opec decision.

Western sanctions on Russian oil came late. The EU only introduced an embargo on crude in December 2022 and on oil products in February 2023. For the majority of last year, Russia benefited from high oil prices and its current account surplus hit a record high, says Hilgenstock. Revenues were just starting to come under pressure – until the boost from Opec.

“This is Saudi Arabia saying ‘hey, Russia, you’re our friend’. What they are doing here is siding with Russia and the Chinese alliance,” says Schieldrop.

“After the cuts from Opec, we are going to have a tighter market. Russia is going to be able to charge a higher oil price, get better income, and be more easily able to finance the war in Ukraine, which will indirectly counter the sanctions the West has implemented.”

The move is natural for Saudi Arabia because the majority of the future demand for its oil will come from Asia.

Other nations can purchase from Russia as long as the crude price is below a cap – this is necessary if they want to use shipping and transportation services from countries in the OECD club of rich nations and the EU. But countries such as China have no restrictions if they do not need to rely on these services.

Russian oil exports to China, India and Turkey have jumped since the war began. Overall exports in December 2022 were higher than in December 2021, according to CEPR.

Just as Russia rakes in cash, the West will be creaking under the burden of inflation.

“It is like a tax on the global economy. It works the same way as rate hikes, it has a slowing effect,” says Schieldrop.

Headline inflation is unlikely to rise, if only because oil prices were so high last year, but the Opec cut means prices will stay higher for longer.

“It highlights the Opec willingness and ability to control prices. That means that if we have an economic downturn, where some of the weakness could have been alleviated from lower input prices, that will not materialise,” says Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Prices will rise in particular markets that rely on oil. “When it comes to sectoral sensitivity, transportation will certainly be the first under attack,” says Tamara Basic Vasilijev, senior economist at Oxford Economics. According to the AA, for every $2 increase in the value of oil, there is a 1p rise in petrol pump prices.

The cost of operating farm machinery will also go up, bringing further pressure on food prices, says Hansen.

“We have seen soybeans and corn prices rise since Friday,” he says.

The move is a major power play from Saudi Arabia, which has announced cuts just after America said it would not boost global demand by replenishing its strategic stocks this year.

America and Saudi Arabia have historically had strong links. Saudi Arabia is America’s largest foreign military sales customer. But relations peaked when Donald Trump was president, says James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics. Trump took a strong line on Iran. Relations under President Joe Biden, who campaigned with anti-Saudi stance, have deteriorated.

“One thing almost on a personal level was that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has taken some offence to the fact that President Biden always wanted to talk with King Salman himself, rather than MBS,” says Swanston.

The Opec move takes advantage of the fact that US shale production is nearing a peak, following a long period in which fracking in the country drove prices down.

“Slowing growth in US shale oil since early December 2022 is basically a whole free card for Opec plus.

“Now they can more or less do what they want and control the oil market as they wish because shale is no longer growing crazily. That was a big, big change in the oil market. The next five years are going to be very different.” says Schieldrop. Opec has no fear of losing market share in the global oil market.

Opec says the new cut is in response to falling global demand, but expectations of a slowing world economy may well be overblown.

Growth is still strong in key importing nations such as India, and China’s post-lockdown reopening means global aviation is normalising.

“We are very bullish for global oil demand. I think global demand is going to continue to strengthen and Opec has good and steady control and they will keep the price and the level they see fit,” says Schieldrop.

“It does look as though the global oil market was in a balance and towards the end of this year might have had a slight surplus. Now, we will move into a deficit. There does seem to be a Saudi Arabia first policy,” says Swanston.

As China, Russia and Saudi Arabia move closer together, America is moving further away. Last year, there were rumours that Saudi Arabia might accept renminbi for its oil exports, which have always been priced in dollars.

Such a change would be a nuclear option and remains highly unlikely in the short term. But as what was once America’s closest Middle Eastern ally drifts into the orbit of fellow autocracies, it no longer seems impossible.

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Earlier this month, the PSNI launched a hard-hitting advertisement campaign aimed at changing public attitudes to paramilitary attacks.

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The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.

“She came out petrified with her Piggy Bank, HER PIGGY BANK! hoping that the men would take it and leave her dad alone,” one outraged officer wrote.

“What sort of men would think it is acceptable to subject a girl to this level of brutality and violence? an attack like thiop.”Neil Borton

The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.

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“Every child has the right to feel safe and protected in their own home – how is this poor child going to sleep tonight or in coming nights? What are the long term effects on her going to be?”

Content without backward-compatible data.

Their community. I wonder how they wou if their own child witnessed such a level of violence?

Earlier this month, the PSNI launched a hard-hitting advertisement campaign aimed at changing public attitudes to paramilitary attacks.

A Kentucky woman who was accused last year.

The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.

“She came out petrified with her Piggy Bank, HER PIGGY BANK! hoping that the men would take it and leave her dad alone,” one outraged officer wrote.

“What sort of men would think it is acceptable to subject a girl to this level of brutality and violence? an attack like thiop.”Neil Borton

The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.

Blackpool polices hunt for David Schwimmer

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“Every child has the right to feel safe and protected in their own home – how is this poor child going to sleep tonight or in coming nights? What are the long term effects on her going to be?”

Content without backward-compatible data.

Their community. I wonder how they wou if their own child witnessed such a level of violence?

Earlier this month, the PSNI launched a hard-hitting advertisement campaign aimed at changing public attitudes to paramilitary attacks.

A Kentucky woman who was accused last year.

The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.

“She came out petrified with her Piggy Bank, HER PIGGY BANK! hoping that the men would take it and leave her dad alone,” one outraged officer wrote.

“What sort of men would think it is acceptable to subject a girl to this level of brutality and violence? an attack like thiop.”Neil Borton

The intruders chased the girl in the house and threatened her when she hid from them, according to the PSNI Limavady Facebook page.